Direct Usage of Mitchell Criteria to Identify and Predict the Arrival of Next Global Pandemic

Abstract

As was seen at the previous Covid-19 pandemic, the intercontinental flights and aerosols, have been the main causes for a massive infection. In this paper, the technology of Machine Learning based at the criteria of Mitchell are employed to identify and predict basic aspects of a new pandemic. To identify and predict, pseudo codes have been written for each one of Mitchell’s criteria. It was assumed that new virus might emerge from Asia for example. Because strong commerce between Asia countries and central Europe, it is widely believed that new virus might be spreading in a few countries. This paper, tries to simulate these facts under a comparative framework based essentially at first weeks of Covid-19. Thus, the simulations have found up to three main routes from Asia-Europe-America as a first round of new pandemic. Strong candidate is Shanghai-Zurich because the continuous economic activity. Global pandemic is identified as the transition of a exponential to a sinusoid behavior on the global data of infections.